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Greetings Trading fans, welcome to the BacktestMachine – a quantitative researcher’s analysis of trading systems.
In this video we’re going to use quantitative data analysis to find out if a simple MACD Crossover system can be profitable.
The quick answer is: Yes it can!
(Above is a direct link to a cumulative Excel spreadsheet with entries, exits and results of 500 trades @ 100 share lots of SPY ($30,000+), QQQ, GLD for 8 month period (December 3, 2019 through August 19, 2020). Both real and simulated trades.)
But how do we build this system? Once it’s built, how do we test it? And how many trades will it take to determine this? What kind of accuracy can we expect, and how much profit are we talking about?
Fortunately, I have done the legwork out of tireless research and years of trading, systems design and systems backtesting and this particular system is one that we can build upon or use outright.
The trades used in this study consist of real positions as well as simulated ones ($30,000 and higher SPY positions were taken at 100 shares per trade).
First off, there are thousands of indicators out there, why are we looking at the MACD?
For the uninitiated, the MACD’s technical definition is:
“Developed by Gerald Appel in the late seventies, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.”
It is a popular indicator not just put into play by retail traders, but by institutional traders alike.
While it is possible to tweak, overlap, and supplement the MACD with an infinite array of indicators, we are going to strip down the MACD to its purest form and use the simplest of trading strategies for this indicator,
Namely, the MACD Crossover.
In this system, a buy signal is initiated when the MACD turns up and crosses above the signal line. Conversely, a sell signal occurs when the MACD turns down and crosses below the signal line.
This is the most rudimentary of MACD systems, but, we will see, even a simple system can be enough to profit from financial systems if executed mechanically, or, without emotion.
For more details about this system, including its exact settings, please feel free to email me at
We will focus on three giant ETFs, namely the SPY, QQQ, and GLD.
By doing so, we gain the liquidity desired if we were to scale upwards with the system, and also get exposure to a multitude of equities at one time.
For this study, we are using 100 share lots and use a 30 minute time frame.
This time frame is one that is heavily watched across many market participants.
Both real positions and simulated positions were made throughout the study.
When going back from December of 2019, we are going to find out that our Simple MACD Crossover system would trigger 500 times.
So, what were the results?
For starters, there was one trade on the SPY that would net over $2200.00!
Let’s watch the video to drill down into the individual stock’s results over 500 trades.
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MACD Crossover Indicator, I Tested MACD Crossover Trading Strategy Indicator for X500 Times – QUANT Analysis Results Were….
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We never ever miss any trend because we trade them all. Emotionless, lucrative and non-discretionary. Every trader will face losses and have to accept them and handle them.
Has your trading 4x online come to a standstill? Do you get in a trade and just have it reverse and take you out at a loss? Have you ever wanted a strategy that was constant in generating income and you didn’t need to see it minute by minute? I have something here that might just work for you. This post presumes that you have some knowledge on online forex charting using technical research studies especially; the Exponential Moving Average, MACD, and Stochastics. For my charting needs I use Wizetrade Forex and the free technical charts from MB Trading.
A few of the stock signals traders look at are: volume, moving averages, Macd Trading, and the stochastic. They also ought to look for floorings and ceilings in a stock chart. This can reveal a trader about where to get in and about where to go out. I say “about” since it is pretty tough to guess an “precise” bottom or an “exact” top. That is why securing earnings is so so vital. If you do not secure revenues you are actually risking of making a worthless trade. Some traders become truly greedy and it just injures them.
The 2nd major point is the Macd Trading signals time. Generally, there are certain time periods that are best to get in a trade and period that are hard to be rewarding or really dangerous. The risky time periods are the times at which the rate is changing and tough to predict. The most risky time periods are the periods at which economy brand-new are occurred. The trader can get in a trade at this time due to the fact that the price can not be forecasted. Likewise at the end day, the trader needs to not enter a trade. In the Forex market, completion day is on Friday.
Stochastics indication has actually got two lines referred to as %K and %D. Both these lines are plotted on the horizontal axis for a provided time period. The vertical axis is outlined on a scale from 0% to 100%.
With your freshly created Macd Trading Crossover formula, let us see it in action. Use your preferred paper trading software application, identify trading chances that fit your technique, and put your trades vigilantly.
Your entry is when the trendline is broken on the 15 minute chart. For this to take place, a candle lights body need to have a close on the opposite of the trend line. When the next candle opens, your buy single is. Look for resistance points like pivot lines that might cause rate to reverse. This is usually where you need to exit the trade.
Among the most liquid, electronically accessible and active market is Online Forex Trading and I feel the scalping method represents the best understood possibilities for picking consistent profits as a trader/scalper.
Always confirm the trading signals provided by the pie chart with the rate action. It implies the cost action will continue to move in the very same instructions if the costs and the histogram make brand-new lows or new highs together.
If it is less than 20, the market is varying strongly and if it is above 30, the marketplace is trending highly. One model all by itself has the possibility to be wrong. When was the last time you truly hung out with your set?
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